GironaAtlético Madrid

Girona is in 18th place on the table, struggling in the relegation zone: they have averaged 1.0 expected goals over 16 matches, while conceding 1.8. They're slightly more stable at home (1.1 expected goals, 1.5 conceded), but coach Michel has a major headache with a long list of absentees: Van de Beek, Stuani, Portu, Abel Ruiz, and several key substitutes are injured, making the already weak attacking line even thinner. The visiting Atlético Madrid, on the other hand, is in form: they've won five of their last six competitive matches, averaging 1.6 expected goals per match in the league while only conceding 1.0. Simeone's team's confidence is boosted by the good form of Julián Álvarez and Griezmann, with the defense stabilized by the Hancko-Le Normand pair.

The pace is moderate (both teams' PPDA is around the league average), but there's a significant advantage for the visitors in shooting volume (Girona 10.4, Atleti 14.2 attempts/match). There's a lot at stake too: the Catalans are fighting for survival, while the Madrid team is chasing Champions League spots, so there shouldn’t be a lack of motivation. The main uncertainty might come from Girona's forced rotation and possible fatigue of the visitors, but this only slightly dulls the balance of power.