LiverpoolAtlético Madrid

Liverpool started the season in great form: four league wins, with a goal difference of +5 out of 12 for 11. They have won their last 14 European matches at Anfield, and in the last 13 they have scored at least twice. The attacking play is solid, and recently even their defense has improved in the last two matches (1-0, 1-0).

Atlético Madrid has yet to win away from home this season, conceding three goals in two matches (xGA 1.3 and 0.9). Simeone's team remains organized, but several key players (Julian Álvarez, Cardoso) are missing, making them less dangerous in attack. All of their first four league games stayed under 3.5 goals.

• Liverpool's average European home goals last season was 2.8, and this season they are expected to score over 2 goals per game.
• Atlético's matches averaged 2.0 goals this year, which lowers the overall goal threshold.
• The home victory is bolstered by form (4/4 wins) and Atlético's away uncertainties.