Inter MiamiNew York City FC

In the Eastern Conference final, the goal-machine Inter Miami hosts the New York City FC, who have shown impressive away performances in the playoffs. The Floridians are formidable at home: during the regular season, they averaged 2.3 expected goals over 17 matches, while conceding only 1.1. Lionel Messi and his team have won every home competitive match since the fall, and demonstrated their peak form with a 4-0 win against Cincinnati in the semifinals.

The visitors' stats are much more modest: they only managed to accumulate 1.4 expected goals on the road, while conceding 1.6. Moreover, 19-goal Alonso Martínez is struggling with a knee injury, making his availability uncertain; without him, NYC's attacking play drops by 0.3 goals per match. Aiden O'Neill returning to the midfield provides stability, but Andres Perea is suspended, which hampers their ball-winning capabilities.

City will likely play a tight 4-2-3-1 counter-attack, but beyond Moralez's creativity, they have few options. The main risk is caution due to the final's stakes, but Miami's form and deep roster mean variance is relatively low.