Manchester CityWest Ham United

Manchester City, aiming for the championship title, comes in an impressive streak: they've won ten of their last 12 competitive matches, averaging 2.6 expected goals while conceding only 0.8. West Ham is quite the opposite: they produce 0.8 expected goals away, but concede 2.3, and their shooting balance (9-15) is severely negative. The absentees favor the home team: while Guardiola will miss Rodri and Doku, Haaland, Foden, and Cherki return, contributing an average of 1.3 combined goals per 90 minutes. For the visitors, Wan-Bissaka and Diouf are at the Africa Cup, Areola's form is inconsistent, and there's a lot of forced rotation in defense, raising questions about their organization. The stakes are high for both sides: a win could temporarily put City on top, while a loss would leave West Ham certainly in the relegation zone over winter. Such a marked attacking-defensive difference is rarely seen in the Premier League, so - with predictable variance - the host and the "goal-heavy" direction are the most stable.