PortoEstoril

League leader Porto is confidently awaiting the round: in the championship, they have a 24-7 goal difference over 11 matches and an expected goal average of over 2.2, while Diogo Costa has held eight clean sheets. They are particularly strong at home (5 wins, 1 draw), averaging 17-7 in shots at the Dragão, with an expected goal quality of 1.8-0.6. Farioli's team is also preparing without rotation, with essentially their full squad - Nehuén Pérez is still absent, but the defense is solid without him. Estoril, after 11 rounds, is in the middle of the table with 19 goals scored and 17 conceded. In the last two rounds, they showed spectacular offensive play (4-0 against Rio Ave, 4-3 against Arouca), but overall in the season, they produce only 0.9 expected goals per match away, while allowing 1.6. Right-wing back Peixinho's participation is questionable, while the defense leader, Ferro, has been out of form in recent weeks, which doesn't bode well against one of the league's most dynamic attacking trios (Pepê - Sainz - Samu). The stakes are clear: Porto wants to maintain their three-point lead at the top of the table, while Estoril aims to continue closing the gap, but the quality gap between the squads and the statistical difference is significant. The only uncertainty factor is the home team's upcoming League Cup semifinal next week, but we haven't seen signs of rotation so far, so we account for only moderate risk.