Wolverhampton WanderersNottingham Forest

The Wolverhampton is in deep crisis: after 13 rounds they still don't have a victory, and both the expected goals (expected goals: 0.9/match) and the quality of shots place the Wolves in the last third of the league. The coaching change with Rob Edwards hasn't brought a noticeable turnaround so far, and the absence of Doherty, Rodrigo Gomes, and goalkeeper Bentley also negatively impacts the attack. In defense, the Wolves allow 1.9 expected goals per match, which strongly suggests a relegation zone.

Nottingham Forest has been more stable since Dyche's arrival: seven points in the last five league matches, including an away upset against Liverpool. The Tricky Trees' defense is more organized (0.9 expected goals conceded in the last five league matches), and Gibbs-White and Igor Jesus are showing good form in attack. Among the visitors, Wood, Zinchenko, and Awoniyi are still injured, but the key Milenković-Morato central defense duo is healthy.

The stakes of the match are high: Wolves are already 9 points from staying up, so a win would be crucial for them, while Forest is trying to stick with mid-table. Based on the numbers, a 1.3-0.9 expected goals distribution appears in favor of the visitors, with a low total goal count and little risk-taking. The recent coaching change causes some uncertainty, but both the statistics and the absentees suggest a close, low-scoring success for Forest.