ElcheGirona

The newcomer Elche has been surprisingly stable at home so far: unbeaten in seven home league games (3 wins - 4 draws), having conceded only five goals, and their expected goals at home (1.46 scored - 1.36 conceded) is also positive. Girona's weak spot is their away performance: in six away matches, they have a 0-3-3 record, scored only four times, while conceding an average of two goals, and their expected goals allowed is around 1.7. Based on the numbers, we can expect approximately 1.5 home goals and 0.6 away goals, resulting in a total expected goals of around 2.1, with a slight "under" profile.

In the standings, Elche is a mid-table team (11th), but their primary goal is survival, while Girona is in 18th place, making every point crucial for them. There is a big contrast in terms of injuries: Elche can work with a full squad, whereas the visitors have a long list of injured players (Juan Carlos, Van de Beek, Portu, Abel Ruiz, Stuani, etc.), which mainly weakens the attack and increases the likelihood of them failing to score. Girona was also knocked out of the cup on Wednesday, so the team's morale and rotation are questionable.

Uncertainty is mainly due to Girona's injury wave and the fact that the Catalans have shown some point-winning form in recent weeks, but their sample size is still small, and their xG-difference remained negative. Overall, based on the statistics and absentees, we can expect a home advantage, few away goals, and many fouls.