AugsburgUnion Berlin

Augsburg, battling against relegation, has stabilized itself with three consecutive home matches without conceding a goal (HSV, Leverkusen, Bremen), but statistically, it remains the team in the league with the third most expected goals against (1.8 xGA per match). This time, the defense must line up without two key players, Gouweleeuw and Matsima, which could increase the number of mistakes. Up front, the home team is not bad in terms of shot volume (13.1/90), but they rarely create high-quality chances (1.1 expected goals).

Union has a middle-of-the-pack 4-0-4 record away from home, but their goal production (1.3 goals scored/90, 1.4 expected goals) has improved since the winter break. Baumgart's team plays a deep block, set-piece-heavy game, with Doekhi and Querfeld excelling in aerial duels (9 league goals combined). The visitors must address the absence of wing-backs Rothe and Skov, which could weaken flank defense, but the three central defenders are still a strong weapon during corners.

With both defenses missing players and Augsburg's more direct style combining with Union's set-piece focus, the “both teams to score” scenario is reinforced. However, the balance of power is even. The main risk is the absence of two of Augsburg's central defenders, adding unpredictability to the match, but statistically, it still indicates moderate risk.