AlavésReal Sociedad

Two Basque rivals standing next to each other on the table face off: Alavés with 15 points, Real Sociedad with 16, both in mid-table. Based on statistics, the more defensive Alavés profile dominates: at home, its goal difference is 9-7, with an expected goal ratio of only 1.1-0.8 per match, meaning it creates few chances but defends steadily. Sociedad away games see it scoring 8, conceding 10, with an expected goals average of 1.17-1.42, playing more openly. However, injuries to Oyarzabal, Oskarsson, and Herrera reduce their attacking power, while Zubeldia's playing status is questionable, which also harms their defensive stability. After the mandatory cup round rotation, both sides may arrive refreshed, but there's serious stake on the table: the winner could draw closer to European spots, while the loser could get stuck in the lower third. Alavés will miss Antonio Blanco, suspended due to yellow cards, which could weaken the midfield filtering, but Coudet's squad is otherwise complete. At Sociedad, due to the absence of key players, they are expected to play more cautiously, focusing on possession with little risk forward. The derby nature and table proximity heighten emotional tension, which could increase the number of fouls; both teams have season averages of over 3.5 yellow cards per match. Overall, we can expect a lower goal output, tense field battles, many fouls, where a single goal might decide the match.