EspanyolRayo Vallecano

Espanyol is having a great home season: they won five out of eight league games played at Cornella-El Prat, lost only two, and are averaging over 1.64 points per match. The expected goals metric (13.1 scored - 11.2 conceded) supports the idea that their results are not just down to luck, and their shot volume is stable (averaging 12 attempts per game). On the Rayo side, they have 10 points from 8 away matches, but their defense is inconsistent in terms of goals conceded (around 1.3 per match), further weakened now by the absence of Abdul Mumin and midfielder Pathé Ciss. However, the Madrid-area team averages 1.2 goals per game as visitors, and Álvaro García is in good form (9 goals this season).

Major uncertainty factors include the Catalans' response to a recent cup failure, and Rayo's possible fatigue after an extended cup match, but we do not expect large rotations on either side.