RomaComo

In the 15th round of the championship, two teams competing for a Champions League spot meet at the Olimpico. Roma is incredibly stable at the back: in 14 matches, they've conceded only eight goals, and their expected goals against average (0.8/match) is by far the best in the league. However, they struggle in attack: an average of 1.1 expected goals, few clear chances, Dovbyk is still injured, Celik is suspended, so their right wing is weakened.

Due to Morata's injury and Perrone's suspension, creativity mainly comes from the young Nicolás Paz, but away from home, the Lariani have only produced 1.0 expected goals per game so far. Their defense is organized (0.9 expected goals against), but the 0-4 loss against Inter showed they're vulnerable in transition against top teams.

Overall, the statistics forecast an expected goal distribution around 1.25–0.65, predicting a tight home victory with few goals. The main risk is Roma's attacking efficiency: if Dybala/Ferguson have another off day, the goal count will remain low. For Como, the absence of creative players reduces the element of surprise, but their possession advantage dampens the number of Roma's counterattacks.