MontenegroCroatia

Montenegro is somewhat more goal-capable at home (1.33 expected goals/match), but Croatia, the most goal-capable team with the best defense in the series, is coming, with an away attacking average of 2.67 and a conceded goals average of only 0.00. Croatia's shots are on average above 15 with a 0.15 shot quality, while Montenegro allows 9 on target, so the game is expected to build on Croatian possession, high visitor pressure, and limited home counterattacks. The main risk is that Dalic might rotate, as the group lead is already secured, which could decrease Croatian intensity. Nevertheless, the defensive difference - only 2 goals conceded on the visitor side in 7 matches - strongly argues for a simple Croatian victory and the both teams not to score option.