Atlético MadridOviedo

Atlético Madrid is in high spirits ahead of Saturday night: the capital's team hosts the bottom team Real Oviedo with five consecutive wins in the league and six across all competitions. Diego Simeone's team has collected 19 points out of a possible 21 at home, scoring an average of 2.7 goals per match while conceding only 0.9 expected goals to their opponents. These numbers are complemented by a strong squad: Le Normand is definitely out, Jan Oblak's participation is doubtful, but Musso's good form is unlikely to significantly impact the effectiveness of their defense.

On the other side, Oviedo is struggling as a newcomer: after 13 rounds, they have only nine points and just seven goals scored (0.54 goals per match). Their attacking play is particularly weak away from home, with only 5.1 expected goals created in six away games. The goalless draw against Rayo is further exacerbated by Chaira's suspension, as the lightning-fast winger is banned, while Lemos and Ejaria are injured. Carrion's team is expected to try to survive in a deep block, but one of the league's most potent attacking forces (2.3 expected Atlético goals) can easily break through this wall.

Due to the lack of attacking play from the guests, the "both teams to score – NO" outcome is also highly likely. The main risks could be the rotation and potential goalkeeper changes, but the difference between the two teams is still significant.