Atlético MadridAlavés

Atlético Madrid remains an impregnable fortress at the Metropolitano: after nine home league matches, they have eight wins and one draw, with an average of nearly two goals scored and just 0.6 goals conceded per game. Their expected goals data (approximately 1.9-0.7) also supports that they play dominantly but at a controlled pace - Simeone's team takes few risks, working from a strict middle block instead of a high press. Alavés is just the opposite away; in nine matches, they have only scored 4 and conceded 14 goals. The stakes are clear: Atlético is defending a secure Champions League spot, while the Basques are just two points from the relegation zone. For the visitors, the injury of goal-scorer Lucas Boyé is a big blow, while for the home team, only Lenglet is missing, with key players (Oblak, Koke, Sørloth) returning after a cup rest. This further widens the attacking-defensive gap between the sides. Low pace, Atlético dominance, and few Alavés chances are expected, so alongside a home win, the "both teams not to score" narrative is also strong. The main risk is the sometimes fruitless dominance of the capital team - if an early lead doesn't come, Simeone tends to sit back on a one-goal advantage - but based on the form of the visiting attackers, this is more of a threat to the total number of goals than the final outcome.