PSV EindhovenAtlético Madrid

PSV is visibly soaring: in the domestic league, they've won 13 out of 14 matches, and they achieved a 4-1 triumph against Liverpool in the Champions League group stage. The statistics also back up their form: at home, they produce an expected 2.4 goals (xG) per match while allowing 1.1 xG. Atlético had a similarly strong season, but they're less convincing away from home (0.9 xG in attack, 1.4 xG in defense). They lost their last two competitive matches, and with defensive pillar Giménez injured, the organization of their defense is weakened. The stakes are high for the match: on the "Swiss" CL table, both teams are fighting for the 8th place, and a win could virtually place them in a position to reach the quarterfinals. Motivation is therefore at its peak. The injury list affects Atlético more (Giménez, Cardoso questionable), while PSV has already learned to compensate for the absence of Perišić. Peter Bosz's attacking football is expected to continue dictating a high pace, while Atlético will try to counter with Simeone's version of the 4-3-3 formation featuring more strikers. The numbers indicate an average of 2.0-1.3 goals (a total of ~3.3), which strengthens the high-scoring direction. A factor of uncertainty is the weakening of the visitors' backline and the fact that PSV sometimes pays for its extreme attacking play with open defending, but the form and the usual goal-fest at the Philips Stadion tilt the balance towards the home team.