Rayo VallecanoMallorca

Rayo Vallecano (19 points) and Mallorca (18 points), who are sitting right above the relegation zone, will face off in a six-point match in Vallecas. Based on statistics, the capital team has a slight edge: at home, they average 1.40 expected goals while allowing only 0.90 - the second strictest home defense in the bottom half of the table. Mallorca, on the road, reaches only 0.92 expected goals while conceding 1.91, meaning they allow twice as many chances as they create.

For the visitors, Raíllo and Mascarell are recovering from minor injuries, putting their playtime in question, which makes the midfield less stable. For the home team, Mendez and Luiz Felipe are missing from the defense, but the core remains solid.

The stakes are high: the winner will be a breath away from the relegation zone. The numbers suggest a tough, foul-filled style (both teams have over 2 yellow cards per match), indicating a high discipline index. The most uncertainty comes from Mallorca's wayward away defense and the home side's below-average chance conversion, but overall the picture projects a low-to-medium goal count and Rayo dominance.