NapoliFiorentina

The defending champion Napoli is trying to get back on track after some ups and downs in recent weeks. In Serie A, their home record is still impressive: 7 wins and 3 draws in 10 matches, with an expected goal difference (goals scored minus conceded) of nearly +0.8 per game at the Maradona. They score about 1.4 goals in the league and concede less than one per match, aided by Meret's return and a stable three-defender setup. Conte's squad is still affected by injuries (De Bruyne, Anguissa, Politano, Neres, Rrahmani), but they have continuity in key positions - Di Lorenzo, Lobotka, McTominay. Hojlund's goal drought is concerning, but the incoming Spinazzola-Gutiérrez wing-back pair creates constant opportunities.

On the other side, Fiorentina has won only once away, averaging 0.9 points and conceding 1.55 goals. In attack, Mandragora (6 goals) and Kean are the main weapons, but the 1.0 goal average and 10.7 shots per match rank them in the lower third. Midweek cup failure and proximity to the relegation zone add pressure on Vanoli's team.

Because of the visitors' erratic defense, the variance is higher, so be cautious with handicaps or the goal market. Injuries slightly increase home uncertainty, but the difference in form and quality is still noticeable.