BournemouthBrentford

The Bournemouth-Brentford matchup matters for the European spots too, and based on the current data the visitors look like they have the more reliable points-winning profile. Bournemouth are on a seven-game unbeaten run, but there have been a lot of draws in it, and their attack has been less productive in recent weeks: the expert summary says four goals in four matches, while the defending has tightened up (three conceded in the same spell). At home, Iraola's side rarely ship a huge number, but the number of wins is limited, which is a risk against a strong away counter-punching team.

Brentford's form is up and down, but away from home they've been seriously strong: the report says they come in on four straight league away wins, and they've won seven of their last eight competitive away games, even while conceding multiple goals. The 4-3 against Burnley highlights the split personality: top individual quality up front (Thiago with 19 league goals), but at the back 2+ conceded is common. This season's head-to-head results (Brentford 4-1, 2-0, plus a cup win for Brentford as well) and their longer nine-game unbeaten run against Bournemouth also tilt the balance towards the away side.

One uncertainty is that Bournemouth could rotate because of the pressing intensity, and Evanilson's condition is questionable. For Brentford, Kelleher is expected back.