RB LeipzigWerder Bremen

Based on the statistics, a significant quality difference emerges between the two teams. Leipzig has produced 2.2 expected goals per match over ten league games while conceding only 1.3; this translates to seven wins and a second place on the table. The attacking pressure and wing play are particularly strong: an average of 17 progressive passes and 34 successful runs into the final third per match. Werder shows much more modest figures: 1.3 expected goals for, 1.8 expected goals against, and although they are unbeaten in five matches, their defense remains vulnerable (1.75 goals conceded with goalkeeper Backhaus per 90 minutes). The absentees reinforce the numbers: while Henrichs and Bitshiabu are missing for the home team, the attacking lineup (Baumgartner, Rômulo, Diomandé) is complete; meanwhile, Weiser, Wöber, and Agu are still absent for the visitors, which takes depth and speed away from coach Steffen's team on the wings. The RB-Werder "coaching twist" (Ole Werner against his former club) suggests extra motivation, not rotation. The main risk factor is Werder's improving attack, but the defense remains fragile due to the missing wing defenders, thus there are few factors questioning home dominance.