Real MadridReal Betis

At the Bernabéu, two teams in good form meet, but with different goals: Real Madrid is chasing the league-leading Barcelona with a four-point deficit, while Betis, in sixth place, fights to maintain their European spots. The home team has accumulated 42 points in 18 matches and produced an expected 2.1 goals per match, while conceding only an expected 1.1 goals.

Mbappé and Carvajal are still missing from Xabi Alonso's squad, but Vinícius Jr. λBET=1.0). Betis is missing Isco, Bakambu, Abde due to the AFCON, Junior Firpo and Llorente are doubtful, therefore Pellegrini is likely to choose a more reserved, counter-attacking approach. However, Betis's defense is not immune: they concede an expected 1.4 goals per match on the road and are particularly vulnerable in set pieces.

All this points to a moderately goal-rich encounter, where Madrid dominates, but the visitors’ counter-attacks and Antony's one-on-one skills make the chance of BTTS (Both Teams to Score) not negligible. The main risk comes from the royal team's upcoming Super Cup semi-final: rotation may occur in the final stages, increasing the likelihood of a Betis consolation goal, but due to the importance of the three points, we do not expect a serious reserve team.