Real MadridBenfica

The second leg kicks off with a 1-0 Madrid lead, which can typically bring a more cautious game script: Real Madrid do not necessarily have to go all-out, while Benfica are in a must-score situation and need at least one goal. Based on the season-long metrics in the statistical database (across all competitions), Real’s attacking volume is strong: Mbappé’s and Vinícius’ shot totals and on-target attempts stand out, which points to a steady goal threat. That said, the article notes Mbappé is doubtful with a knee issue, and there are several key midfield/defensive absences as well (Bellingham, Militão, Ceballos), which could limit the home side’s build-up play and the quality of their pressing.

For Benfica, Pavlidis is the main finisher (high goals-per-90 rate), and the squad is close to full strength, but Prestianni’s suspension reduces creativity out wide. Benfica’s historical record away to Spanish opponents is poor, and the Bernabéu factor favors Real. Between the posts, Courtois’ season-long save efficiency is strong, and Trubin has been steady too, so goalkeeper performance does not swing the goal expectation in any extreme way.