CagliariRoma

Home team Cagliari hasn't won in the league since November, scoring only 13 goals in 13 rounds while conceding 21 goals (1.37 goals conceded/90 minutes). Their shots have an average quality of 0.09 expected goals per shot, and recently, creative winger Felici has been sidelined. Gasperini's team operates with few goals (average 1.45 expected goals), but efficiency is boosted by Soule, Dybala, and Wesley, who each contribute double-digit progressive actions per match.

The stakes are high: Roma needs to maintain a Champions League spot, while Cagliari is edging closer to the relegation zone. For the visitors, Dybala and Baldanzi's flu is questionable, but the defense is intact; for the home team, besides Felici and Mazzitelli, Belotti is also missing, which reduces the diversity of their attacks. Both teams face a busy December, so a more cautious, tempo-controlling game is expected. The data suggests a 1.4-0.6 expected goals ratio, indicating few goals and likely dominance by the visitors, but due to Roma's narrow squad and the always competitive atmosphere at Sardegna Arena, a close result cannot be ruled out.