NiceBraga

As we approach the penultimate round of the group stage, the motivations of the two teams are sharply different. Nice is at a historical low point: a seven-match losing streak, zero points in the Europa League, and an average of just 1.1 expected goals over twenty matches, while conceding 1.9.

In contrast, Braga is stable: they've collected 10 points in the series, only lost away to Porto, and overall are averaging 1.8 scored and 0.9 conceded expected goals per 90 minutes.

A key factor is that the Nice back four lacks speed and experience - Braga's left side with Lelo's advances and Horta's half-space runs can ruthlessly exploit this. For the Portuguese, a win virtually guarantees progression, so their motivation is maximum. The main risk is the Zalazar suspension, but Moutinho can replace him with experience. The biggest uncertainty is increased by Nice's potential desperate do-or-die attitude, but this only minimally shifts the numbers.