NapoliChelsea

Napoli has been undefeated at Maradona since December 2025, and in the CL group stage, they managed to take 7 points out of a maximum 9 on their home ground (with a goal difference of 4-1).

Chelsea, under Rosenior's management, has switched to livelier pressing and faster transitions (averaging 17 shots/90 in the last five competitive matches), but they remain vulnerable away: they haven't won away in the CL since October 2022, allowing 1.8 expected goals per match meanwhile. The defense is further depleted: Colwill and Adarabioyo are injured, James' minutes are being managed cautiously, and Palmer's participation is questionable. This weakens the defense of the Londoners, but in attack, João Pedro (0.85 shots on target/90) and Estevão Willian (3 goals in the CL) are in form.

The stakes are high: Napoli will be eliminated if they don't secure three points, and Chelsea aims to finish in eighth place to avoid the playoffs. The high motivation, the defensive absentees on both sides, and the statistical profile all predict an open match with 3-4 goals likely. Risk factors include the Meret factor and the fact that the guests played a league match 60 hours earlier, but the numbers are stable, and the samples are sufficiently large.