BenficaArouca

According to statistics, Benfica averages over 2.0 expected goals (xG) per match at home, while allowing around 0.5 xGA. This pairs with Arouca's weak away performance: the visitors have conceded 19 goals in eight rounds, with a shot quality (xG/match) of only ~1.1, while their xGA is over 2. Possession is expected to be around 60-40 in favor of the Eagles, which with high tempo (about 105 total passes/minute) suggests a high-scoring scenario. Benfica averages 6.2 corners and Arouca 4.1, while we see around 4.6/90 on cards – these indicate an average risk level. The biggest uncertainty comes from Benfica's mental reaction after the CL setback and Dedić's injury, but the squad's depth can counterbalance this.