IsraelMoldova

Based on the current qualification stats, the Israeli team's shooting volume (average 14 attempts/match) and chance quality (expected goals ≈ 2.3) significantly surpass Moldova's (6.5 shots, expected goals ≈ 0.6). Despite the neutral venue and the absence of three Israeli wingers reducing the attacking potential, the quality gap between the two teams remains large: Moldova scored only four times in seven matches, with an average of 4.0 goals conceded. Their defense is particularly vulnerable on the flanks, where Dasa's breakthroughs and Gloukh's creativity can open up significant space for Turgeman. The expected goal difference still stands around +1.6, suggesting a likely one-sided match, while the guests' main threat to the Israeli defense could come from set pieces. The main risk factors are the variance due to many absentees and the motivation factor, as neither team is fighting for direct advancement anymore.