VillarrealFC Copenhagen

Based on statistics, there's a sharp contrast between the two teams' international and domestic performances. Villarreal is outstanding in La Liga (2.3 points/match, 1.9 goals scored and only 0.9 expected goals conceded at home), but in the Champions League group stage they've only scraped together one point, yet they managed 1.5 expected goals per match against the elite. The visiting FC København's performance is much more fluctuating: 1.6 points/match in the Danish league, but internationally 1.74 goals conceded/90 and 2.80 goals conceded in the last five CL fixtures.

In terms of absences for the Yellow Submarine, Juan Foyth is suspended, but due to the depth of the center-back pair (Rafa Marín, Renato Veiga), this affects ball distribution more than defense. For the Danes, Lerager is suspended, Huescas and Mattsson are injured, making the visiting midfield prone to many turnovers. Due to the group stage standings, both teams are under pressure to win: Villarreal needs to catch the play-off zone, while the Copenhagen team wants to steal points, as it will be much harder against Napoli and Barcelona in January.

The main uncertainty factor is Villarreal's CL frustration: if they become more tense, the quality of chances might decrease, but the numbers still clearly show home superiority.