AtalantaRoma

Atalanta hosts Roma, who are vying for a top spot in the league, so the stakes are huge for both sides. Atalanta’s home record is stable: of nine league matches they lost only two, their expected goal difference (+0.6) elevates them above the mid-table. However, their attack might be hindered by Ademola Lookman’s absence due to the Africa Cup, without him their goal average drops to 1.1. In defense, they will miss N'Dicka, but Gasperini’s three-man backline remains disciplined.

In attack, the Wolves don't shine away from home either (1.25 expected goals/match), and Pellegrini’s injury reduces creativity. Both sides have strong midfield screening, ball possession could be around 50-50, and the game tempo is likely to be defined by safety.

Main risk: Tactical surprises due to Gasperini’s return, and the unpredictable impact of key absences (Lookman, Pellegrini) could affect the attacking play, but a rather reserved encounter is expected.