InternazionaleBologna

Inter continues to hold its leading position in the league: the Milan team has achieved 12 wins in 17 rounds, only losing four times, and they have no draws yet. At home, they score an average of 2.2 goals and concede less than one, with a shooting quality (expected goals) confidently over 2 per match. With Lautaro Martínez leading, the attacking line is constantly in motion, while Dimarco and (possibly available this time) Dumfries/Bisseck provide width on the flanks. The absentees are mainly in the wing positions, but based on statistics, this minimally reduces the expected home goal output (λInter ≈ 2.1).

Bologna had an excellent run in the fall, but they faltered from mid-December: in the last four league matches, they collected only two points, with the defense allowing 1.6 expected goals per match. Moreover, their primary goalkeeper, Łukasz Skorupski, is still injured, so the less experienced Ravaglia is guarding the goal. However, the visitors scored in almost every away match (around 0.9–1.1 xG), and due to Orsolini's form and Castro's integration, we estimate λBologna ≈ 0.9.

The expected total goal count is around 3, so the option below the 3.5 threshold remains favorable. A significant risk factor is the home team's lack of wingers and the relatively tight schedule, but these affect the pace on the flanks rather than the goal output.