BenficaReal Madrid

In recent weeks, Benfica has revived at home - with four consecutive wins and a 10-1 goal difference - but they are still chasing the 24th place in the Champions League group stage. Mourinho’s team’s attacking play works at home (an average of 1.6 expected goals and 15 shots), while the defense is sometimes vulnerable, especially against quick transitions. Visiting team Real Madrid stumbled at the beginning of the month, but Mbappé and his team have since won three matches with an 11-2 goal ratio. In the championship, they average over 2.0 expected goals and 17 shots away from home, but they will be missing Rüdiger, Militão, and Mendy in defense, which reduces their stability. At the same time, the injuries in Madrid and the absence of key players (Bah, Lukebakio) at home increase the likelihood of both teams scoring. The stakes are high: Real could secure the top 8 with a win, while Benfica would almost certainly miss the playoffs with a loss. Both sides are motivated, no rotations are expected, but the newly appointed Arbeloa adds some uncertainty to the guests' tactics.