MarseilleLorient

Marseille remains dangerous at home: in their only Velodrome match this season, they scored 5 goals, and since last year's league finale, they have eight consecutive home wins, averaging 3.1 goals scored.

The newly promoted Lorient is still weak away from home: they have five consecutive away defeats in the top division, losing 0-1 against Auxerre in the first match of the new season, producing only 1.3 xG. The 8 goals conceded in three rounds indicate that their defense collapses, especially in the second half (all of their conceded goals came after the break).

• Marseille's overall goal difference is 5-4, but they've scored five at home, struggling away - so the Velodrome truly provides an advantage.
• Lorient stands with 5 goals scored, 8 goals conceded in 3 matches; they didn't score in their only away encounter.

Based on the above numbers, a home win and Marseille's goal production are the most solid options, with the match's total goals expected to be slightly over two. Lorient's scoring ability away is uncertain, so we'll avoid the BTTS market for now.