Club BruggeMonaco

Club Brugge has been outstanding at home in recent months: they have lost only two of their last 17 European home matches, and this season, they've only failed to score on one occasion. Monaco is less convincing away: in this season's league matches, they have an xG of 1.35 but have allowed 1.85 xG, and in both of their away matches, they conceded goals.

• The Belgian team's goal-scoring ability and Monaco's defensive vulnerabilities strongly suggest Brugge will score at least once.
• In the two teams' matches this year, the average number of goals scored is over 3.0, so a total of 2-3 goals in this match is the most likely outcome.
• Club Brugge's undefeated home streak (10-4-0 in all competitions) and Monaco's fluctuating away form (1-0-1 this season) suggest the Belgian team will likely secure points.

Risks: Monaco's attacking lineup (Minamino, Akliouche, Balogun) is capable of sudden goal rushes, and Brugge has minor defensive injuries, increasing the chance of both teams scoring.