FulhamManchester City

Fulham, belonging to the middle of the league (17 points), awaits the matchup with an excellent home record: in six Craven Cottage league matches, 4 wins, 1 draw, and only 1 loss, with an average of 1.45 goals scored and 0.85 expected goals conceded.

Manchester City has been surprisingly vulnerable away from home so far (2–1–3), with a drop in attacking efficiency: 1.32 goals scored and 0.96 expected goals conceded per match. Rodri and Kovacic are still unavailable, so Guardiola has to play Bernardo Silva deeper, with young O’Reilly and Nunes in supporting roles, reducing the number of ball recoveries. However, with Haaland (19 goals in 16.5 matches), Foden, and Doku, the quality is unquestionable - their xG difference is +0.64 even in poorer away form.

The injuries primarily weaken the visitor's midfield, leading to higher variance than in a "classic" City match, but the quality difference remains clear.