OviedoMallorca

Friday night's match at the Carlos Tartiere is a real relegation “six-pointer”: the 20th-placed Real Oviedo (9 points) hosts 16th-placed Mallorca (13 points). Based on the numbers, Oviedo's attacking game is the weakest in the league: in 14 rounds, they have scored only 7 goals and according to expected goals, 11.4, with a home goal average of 0.29 per game. The visitors are not terrifying on the road either (1.14 goals, 1.06 expected goals), but they are far from being as impotent as the hosts. Defensively, both teams are below average: Oviedo at home with 1.97 expected goals conceded, Mallorca away with 2.11 - this is the main reason why our overall expected goals still hover around 2.1 (Oviedo 0.85, Mallorca 1.25).

There are no dramatic changes in the squads: Oviedo is missing two full-backs (Lemos, López), but Ilyas Chaira returns, which could add speed to the left flank. Mallorca is only missing rotational players, Dani Rodríguez is available after suspension, and up front, the eight-goal Muriqi remains a key figure. The stakes are huge on both sides: a defeat could push Oviedo even deeper, while Mallorca could move five points clear of the zone with a win. The pressure, the tense atmosphere, and the above-average foul statistics of both teams (among the league leaders in cards) cast a high number of cards ahead.

The biggest uncertainty is how much Oviedo can energize their fans after an extremely poor goal-scoring yield; for Mallorca, travel fatigue and the Tuesday evening cup match could mean a bit of rotation, although key players have rested. Overall, we expect few goals and many fouls - statistics and long-term well-performing markets also support this.