Atlético MadridRayo Vallecano

Atlético Madrid is currently unbeaten at home (1 win, 1 draw) while conceding just one goal at the Metropolitano Stadium. Rayo Vallecano shows mixed performance away (1-0-2), allowing an average of 1.33 goals per match. In the last five league matches between the two teams, there have generally been few goals, with 2-3 goals scored: all Atlético matches have had 2 or 3 goals, and Rayo's last four matches have all had 2 or 3 goals.

• The under 3.5 goals outcome was fulfilled in 9 out of 10 of their common matches this year.
• The over 1.5 goals outcome also occurred in 9 out of 10 occasions, placing the most likely goal range between 2 and 3.
• Rayo hasn't won at Atlético's ground since 1999, making a home defeat still a rarity.
• On the attacking side, based on Atlético's average xG (1.42) and Rayo's xGA (1.23), at least 1-2 home goals are expected, while the visitors may only get a single goal at most.