JuventusMilan

According to the stats, Juventus is unbeaten at home, but they have conceded goals in their last four league games, while Milan scored in every league win this year. The quality of shots (Juventus registered 1.9 xG against Dortmund, 1.4 at Villarreal) combined with defensive lapses suggests a high chance for both sides to score. The two teams have accumulated a total of 26 yellow cards over six rounds (Juventus around 14, Milan 12), averaging well over 4 - in a prestige match, with Allegri's return, heightened tensions are expected. Form and freshness also tilt the balance toward Rossoneri: a four-game league winning streak, while Juventus plays after a midweek Champions League game, with both defenses changing due to the absences of Bremer, Cabal, Estupiñan, and Tomori. This increases the chance of a Milan win or draw.