ChelseaBenfica

Benfica is stable away from home, but through Pavlidis they are consistently effective, so at least two goals in total seems realistic. It would be important for the Blues to break their three-game losing streak, and Maresca might prepare a more cautious tactic that protects two results. The visitors' form is improving, but in Mourinho's first away Champions League match, the English environment and Chelsea's possession dominance could prove challenging.

• Chelsea's average xG at home: Over 1.8; at least 1 goal in every home match.
• Benfica has scored 10 goals in 5 away matches, but their average xGA is 0.9 – meaning their defense is not invincible.
• Due to Pavlidis's (8 matches/6 goals) and Chelsea's backline errors, a goal exchange is likely, but the Blues are not necessarily going to lose.
• Discipline: Benfica 22 yellow, 1 red; Otamendi, Dedic are in danger – this could favor the home team in the final stages.