Athletic ClubQarabağ

Based on statistics, we can expect a restrained-paced but evenly matched encounter in Bilbao. The home team's average xG over 11 official matches is 1.2, while defensively they only allow 0.9 xGA - they have a solid backline, but their attacking play is just moderate. Qarabağ, on the other hand, is on a roll: they scored 5 goals in two CL games, and their form indicates six consecutive wins. Away from home, they usually play more openly, averaging around 1.5 goals scored, but their defense's xGA is estimated above 1. Number of shots (Athletic 12.6; Neither side is very aggressive with cards (Athletic 1.6 yellow/90), and we can expect around 4 corners each. The main risk is that the Spaniards' form is inconsistent (only 1 win in the last 9 matches), while Qarabağ is physically fresher, which could upset the expectations.