TürkiyeBulgaria

Based on the current qualification data, the Turkish national team produces an average of 2.65 expected goals per match (13 goals / 4 matches, with a -0.15 correction due to an injured forward), while the Bulgarian team only achieves 0.75 expected goals (0.25 goal average, but due to the absence of Elmali from the Turkish defense, +0.15 correction). The form curve also supports this: Turkey has achieved a goal difference of 10-2 in the last two matches, Bulgaria 1-16 in four matches. There is also a significant difference in shooting volume (17/90 vs. 6/90) and chance quality (average shot xG 0.11 vs. 0.06). The main risk lies in the personnel shortage in the Turkish defense and the fact that the home team is already preparing for Spain; this slightly increases the chance for a Bulgarian goal, but the quality difference remains huge.