AlbaniaEngland

Based on the dry numbers from the qualifiers so far, the performance of the English national team is outstanding: 7 matches, 20 goals scored and 0 conceded, with an expected goals average of 2.8 (expected goals against only 0.35). Albania is stable at the back (0.43 goals conceded per match, xGA ≈ 0.6), but in attack, they only produce 1.0 goals, with an attacking efficiency of around 0.07 goals/shot. Konzsa's injury might give Albanians some extra space, so we've set the home λ to 0.45 and the English λ to 1.9. As both teams have already achieved their goals - England is first, Albania is in the playoffs - the risk factors chiefly lie in rotation and low playing intensity. Due to the defensive streak, slower rhythm, and low-quality chances of the home team, we can expect a low-scoring but English-controlled game.