Bayern MunichSt. Pauli

Based on the statistics, almost every indicator favors Bayern Munich. After 11 league rounds, the Bavarians lead the field with a goal difference of 36–9 and an expected goal average of 2.6 (even higher at home, above 3); this is complemented by only 0.7 expected goals conceded per match. On the other hand, St. Pauli has drifted close to the relegation zone after eight consecutive league losses, due to injured forwards (Pyrka, Saliakas questionable) and poor form. The visitors work with an expected goal average below 1.0 and 1.9 expected goals conceded, having scored only two open-play goals in the last six rounds.

Vincent Kompany's team lost at Arsenal's home on Wednesday, but little rotation is expected, as the squad is deep: Kane, Olise, Díaz are still creating chances. Upamecano and Kim have returned to Bayern's defense, and Neuer is stable. St. Pauli is missing Dźwigała from the midfield and Nemeth from the defense, further weakening the already vulnerable backline. Mentally, the home team is preparing for a record-breaking performance (44th consecutive leading round), while the visitors are under unbearable pressure due to their series of failures.

The main risk is that Bayern, following Wednesday's Champions League strain, might slow down the pace, but the statistical advantage remains significant even so.