Athletic ClubReal Madrid

Athletic Bilbao is having a fluctuating season: they are stable at home (13 points in 7 matches), but their attacking play is restrained due to Inaki Williams's injury: an average of 0.9 expected goals and only 10 shots per game. Real Madrid, on the other hand, continues to be a goal machine: over 14 rounds, averaging 2.05 expected goals, with Kylian Mbappé leading the scoring chart with 23 goals. Absentees: for the home team, Inaki Williams remains questionable, and Sancet is suspended; this further diminishes their attacking potential. For Real, Carvajal is injured, but Alexander-Arnold will replace him, and Militao and Rüdiger are now available in defense. The stakes are high: Madrid is trailing the league leaders Barcelona by one point, so another slip-up is not an option. Overall, the numbers suggest a 2.05-0.85 expected goals ratio in favor of the visitors, with a low pace and few Bilbao chances. The risk comes from the Basques' solid home defense and Real's busy schedule, but the squad depth offsets this.