QarabağAjax

In the group stage's new format so far, Qarabag has shown a particularly strong home performance: they won 2-0 against FC Copenhagen and forced Chelsea to a 2-2 draw with an expected goals of 1.8. Overall, in their three Baku CL matches, they’ve had a 1.8 home and 1.2 conceded expected goals average.

The motivation is there for both sides: with a win, Qarabag can realistically aim for the top 16 spots, and Ajax desperately needs their first CL victory to stop their negative club record. For the visitors, Weghorst's play is doubtful (ankle), Berghuis and van den Boomen are still out, which further highlights the roles of Godts and Dolberg, but the vulnerability of the Dutch defense remains.

Overall, the numbers suggest a boldly attacking clash, but one where both sides are defensively vulnerable, where the home "+0.5" handicap and both teams scoring seem like logical starting points. The main uncertainty increases due to the coaching question happening at Ajax and potential rotations, but these question the guests' stability rather than the goal exchange.