SevillaCelta Vigo

Sevilla's home performance this year (9 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses) remains inconsistent: on average, they score 1.27 and concede 1.67 goals per game, with the expected goals indicator also showing only a minimal positive (11.4–11.4). Celta, however, is more efficient away from home than their 7th place on the table suggests: in their 9 league travels, they've scored 11 goals, with 14.1 expected goals, and secured 3 notable wins – including a triumph in Madrid. On the attacking side, the absence of Adams and Ejuke limits the home team's options, while Celta arrives with a full squad, and their Iglesias–Aspas duo has already scored 15 goal points this season.

The likelihood of Celta remaining unbeaten (win or draw) is around 0.74, while both teams scoring is also calculated at 0.54. Risks include Sevilla falling apart under pressure (and their current three-game goal drought) and Celta’s occasionally faltering defense.