RomaMilan

In the highlight match of Serie A's 22nd round, the fourth-placed Roma hosts second-placed Milan. With goalkeeper Svilar, the capital city team has conceded only 12 goals in 21 league games and has won seven of nine at home. However, due to Mario Hermoso's injury and Gianluca Mancini's minor issue, their defense is now slightly more vulnerable. Dybala has found his form up front, Malen's debut goal is promising, but a home average of 1.25 expected goals is just mediocre.

Milan is remarkable away: in 10 league trips, they've had a 17-7 goal difference, and Maignan's 0.82 goals conceded average is elite in the league. The Rossoneri are unbeaten in 20 league games, with Leão (0.65 goals/90), Pulisic (1.05 goals-assist/90), and the recently scoring Füllkrug providing the threat. Plus, the guest roster is almost complete, only missing Giménez.

The stakes are huge for both sides: Roma is four points behind Milan, and a defeat would practically knock them out of the Scudetto race, while a win for the visitors keeps them in step with Inter. Motivation is therefore at its peak, and no rotation is expected due to a midweek cup-free week. Main risk: the absence of Hermoso slightly increases Roma's GA, but due to the stability of the Milan defense and the relatively slow, three-defender play styles, we still predict a rather closed match.